Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
